BREXIT - STILL NO REAL PROGRESS
JUNE 16:
Yesterday a summit was held between the EU and
United Kingdom ( PM Boris Johnson ). It
is time to make an update on the situation.
The key new point is that the UK has now formally
stated that it does not want a prolongation of the transitional period. They want definitively to leave the EU on
December 31, 2020. At the same time it
was agreed at the summit yesterday that the negotiations on a trade agreement
between the two parties will continue.
PM Johnson claims that he wants such an agreement in place before the
end of the year.
In reality this is not new.
The United Kingdom ( UK ) left the EU on January
31, 2020. In the Withdrawal Agreement it
was stated, that a transition period would last for 11 months, from February 1
to December 31, 2020. The UK would no
longer have members in the EU institutions, but still in other ways be treated
as a member of the EU in that period – with free access to the single market
and to EU programmes. And also contribute as usual to the EU budget. The transition period should be used to
negotiate a new agreement between the EU and the UK. And this agreement should be ready at the
latest by June 30. Why? Because it has
to be ratified in each of the parliaments of the 27 EU member states, in the
European Parliament and in the British parliament. This is expected to last six months.
This is now no longer possible – nor wanted by
the British side.
This is why time is now very short now. And
though the negotiations have been going on since February they have so far in
reality gone nowhere.
Now, PM Johnson is not best known for always to
be open and honest – and stick to the facts. Therefore, many people quite naturally ask
themselves: Can you trust him, when he
says that he wants an agreement?
Personally, I tend to believe that he does not want an agreement. He wants a so-called hard Brexit without an
agreement. And I am certainly not alone
with this belief. I/we might be wrong –
and see the Brits at the last possible moment before June 30 ask for a
prolongation, probably with reference to the corona crisis.
The negotiators on both sides are working to try
to reach an agreement. For EU the chief negotiator is Michel Barnier. He is in charge of a special Task Force for
Relations with The United Kingdom. I
have personally worked directly with him for a couple of years, when he was EU
Commissioner. He is a very skilful, very
serious and always a very well prepared politician. Earlier he was French
foreign minister and EU Commissioner. It
is especially thanks to him that the EU managed to keep all 27 member states
fully on board in all stages of the difficult Brexit negotiations from
2016-19. So, the Brits know whom they
are up against.
On the UK side a number of political chief
negotiators have been in charge during the Brexit negotiations. I am sure that Barnier has not always been
impressed by their knowledge and preparations for the talks ☹ Today the British chief negotiator is David
Frost, a leading official from the government.
You may follow developments on a special website,
which Barnier’s team keeps up-to-date all the time:
If we for a moment look at the interdependence
between the EU and the UK when trade in goods and services is concerned you see
a huge difference: While the UK export
to the EU is about 50 % of UK’s total export the EU export to the UK is below
10 % of EU’s total export. These facts,
of course, play an important role in the negotiations – and also in the future
relationship.
In the mean time everybody is preparing
themselves for all possibilities, incl. a hard Brexit. UK’s closest neighbours, esp. France, Belgium
and the Netherlands, have all strengthened their staff in customs management.
And the UK itself is at the moment trying to recruit 50.000 extra staff for
their customs services. To put this figure into perspective: This is 20 % more people than the total
number of staff in all EU institutions!
Why so many extra people? Because the Brits
believe that while they today have to handle about 50 mio. customs declarations
a year the number after Brexit will be at least 5 times as high!
About the ongoing negotiations: The British side wants to have a free trade
agreement with full access to EU’s huge market.
A traditional British trade policy since a long time. They do not want to be bound by all the rules
which are valid for the single market ( such as competition rules,
environmental decisions, rules about protection of workers, etc. ). And they
definitely do not want to see the EU Supreme Court involved in cases of
dispute. All this is unacceptable for
the EU. Protection of the single market
and what is linked to it is a top priority.
The UK side also wants continued access for the British financial
institutions to the EU. This is not
acceptable either. On the other side
the EU wants to continue to have access to fishing in what becomes British
waters. Also a point of disagreement.
The EU strategy is very clear: there is no agreement on anything, before
there is a clear and binding agreement on all areas.
It is not the end of the world, if it all ends
with no agreement between the EU and the UK. But it will give a lot of troubles,
esp. for the Brits. Trade will, of
course, be hit. So will many other areas of cooperation. And there is a real
risk that it – at least in the longer run - will also give problems for the
millions of EU citizens still living in the UK and for the about 1 million
British citizens living in one of the EU countries.
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